Who gains from the Lebanese conflict?
Finally, a ceasefire is in place in Lebanon. What started off as a reckless cross-border raid by Hizbollah to capture 2 Israeli soldiers ended in a full scale war. The disproportionate response of Israel led to the destruction of 600 km of roads, 150 bridges, and between 40,000 to 200,000 homeless (depending on the source of information). Factories were razed to the ground, foreign investment fled the country, and the tourism industry of Lebanon which boasts 1.6 million visitors annually seems not likely to recover anytime soon.
The Israeli intention to secure the release of its 2 captured soldiers remains unfulfilled.
So, what has this war accomplished?
1. Greater support for Hizbollah- branded terrorist organisation by the West, but seen to be the "hero" who has stood up to the military superpower of the region. We can expect more notoriety from this organisation in the future.
2. Difficulty for the Israel government to implement the further withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Like it or not, Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip only if it is politically expedient, and this recent war is not going to make it politically expedient for Israel to withdraw further at any time soon.
3. Greater fuel for recruitment by terrorist organisations. One-sided information coupled with youthful zest and enthusiasm can easily be manipulated to lead marginalised youths into infamy, driven by their hope of glory or martyrdom, whichever comes first.
4. Better profits for weapons suppliers. The war has used up a reasonable amount of supplies of bombs and weaponry, and these need to be replenished. The weapons industry is reputed to be a US$8 billion dollar industry per annum.
5. Better political mileage for Bush. Hizbollah helps preserve the political fiction that Islam perpetuates terrorism and is out to destroy US/Israel/West and all the values they stand for.
6. Further disenfranchisement between Israel and its Arab neighbours, which only serves the right-wingers of both Israel and Arabs.
7. Potential disaster for Ehud Olmert, PM of Israel, for his handling of the Lebanese crisis which has resulted in a seeming "defeat" for Israel.
8. Better fundraising for a Republican president for the next elections in the US. It is said that the Bush administration comprises 32 executives and stockholders from the weapons industry (www.themoderntribune.com). The perpetuation of war is good for business.
So, we have a ceasefire, a mere cessation of hostilities. But there is as yet no peace, which remains an illusive dream so long as parties with vested interests in war remains in power.